Development of a risk score to identify patients at high risk for a severe course of COVID-19

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung


  • Josephine Jacob - , Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin (Erstautor:in)
  • Falko Tesch - , Zentrum für evidenzbasierte Gesundheitsversorgung (Autor:in)
  • Danny Wende - , BARMER Institut für Gesundheitssystemforschung (bifg) (Autor:in)
  • Manuel Batram - , Vandage GmbH (Autor:in)
  • Friedrich Loser - , Techniker Krankenkasse (Autor:in)
  • Oliver Weidinger - , AOK Bayern (Autor:in)
  • Martin Roessler - , Zentrum für evidenzbasierte Gesundheitsversorgung (Autor:in)
  • Martin Seifert - , Zentrum für evidenzbasierte Gesundheitsversorgung (Autor:in)
  • Lisa Risch - , Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin (Autor:in)
  • Oliver Nagel - , Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin (Autor:in)
  • Christina König - , Techniker Krankenkasse (Autor:in)
  • Roland Jucknewitz - , AOK Bayern (Autor:in)
  • Marina Treskova-Schwarzbach - , Robert Koch-Institut (Autor:in)
  • Dagmar Hertle - , BARMER Institut für Gesundheitssystemforschung (bifg) (Autor:in)
  • Stefan Scholz - , Robert Koch-Institut (Autor:in)
  • Stefan Stern - , AOK Bayern (Autor:in)
  • Pedro Ballesteros - , BARMER Institut für Gesundheitssystemforschung (bifg) (Autor:in)
  • Stefan Baßler - , AOK PLUS (Autor:in)
  • Barbara Bertele - , Techniker Krankenkasse (Autor:in)
  • Uwe Repschläger - , BARMER Institut für Gesundheitssystemforschung (bifg) (Autor:in)
  • Nico Richter - , DAK-Gesundheit (Autor:in)
  • Cordula Riederer - , DAK-Gesundheit (Autor:in)
  • Franziska Sobik - , DAK-Gesundheit (Autor:in)
  • Anja Schramm - , AOK Bayern (Autor:in)
  • Claudia Schulte - , BARMER Institut für Gesundheitssystemforschung (bifg) (Autor:in)
  • Jochen Walker - , Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin (Autor:in)
  • Jochen Schmitt - , Zentrum für evidenzbasierte Gesundheitsversorgung (Letztautor:in)


AIM: We aimed to develop a risk score to calculate a person's individual risk for a severe COVID-19 course (POINTED score) to support prioritization of especially vulnerable patients for a (booster) vaccination.

SUBJECT AND METHODS: This cohort study was based on German claims data and included 623,363 individuals with a COVID-19 diagnosis in 2020. The outcome was COVID-19 related treatment in an intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation, or death after a COVID-19 infection. Data were split into a training and a test sample. Poisson regression models with robust standard errors including 35 predefined risk factors were calculated. Coefficients were rescaled with a min-max normalization to derive numeric score values between 0 and 20 for each risk factor. The scores' discriminatory ability was evaluated by calculating the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS: Besides age, down syndrome and hematologic cancer with therapy, immunosuppressive therapy, and other neurological conditions were the risk factors with the highest risk for a severe COVID-19 course. The AUC of the POINTED score was 0.889, indicating very good predictive validity.

CONCLUSION: The POINTED score is a valid tool to calculate a person's risk for a severe COVID-19 course.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-023-01884-7.


Seiten (von - bis)1-10
Fachzeitschrift Journal of public health : from theory to practice
PublikationsstatusElektronische Veröffentlichung vor Drucklegung - 22 März 2023

Externe IDs

PubMedCentral PMC10032626
Scopus 85150499345


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