Deterministic and probabilistic regularities underlying risky choices are acquired in a changing decision context

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • Andrea Kóbor - , Research Centre for Natural Sciences (HUN-REN) (Autor:in)
  • Eszter Tóth-Fáber - , University Eötvös Loránd, Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience and Psychology (Autor:in)
  • Zsófia Kardos - , Research Centre for Natural Sciences (HUN-REN), Technische und Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Universität Budapest (Autor:in)
  • Ádám Takács - , Klinik und Poliklinik für Kinder- und Jugendpsychiatrie (Autor:in)
  • Noémi Éltető - , Max Planck Institute for Biological Cybernetics (Autor:in)
  • Karolina Janacsek - , University Eötvös Loránd, Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience and Psychology, University of Greenwich (Autor:in)
  • Valéria Csépe - , Research Centre for Natural Sciences (HUN-REN), University of Pannonia (Autor:in)
  • Dezso Nemeth - , University Eötvös Loránd, Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience and Psychology, Centre de Recherche en Neurosciences de Lyon (Autor:in)

Abstract

Predictions supporting risky decisions could become unreliable when outcome probabilities temporarily change, making adaptation more challenging. Therefore, this study investigated whether sensitivity to the temporal structure in outcome probabilities can develop and remain persistent in a changing decision environment. In a variant of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task with 90 balloons, outcomes (rewards or balloon bursts) were predictable in the task’s first and final 30 balloons and unpredictable in the middle 30 balloons. The temporal regularity underlying the predictable outcomes differed across three experimental conditions. In the deterministic condition, a repeating three-element sequence dictated the maximum number of pumps before a balloon burst. In the probabilistic condition, a single probabilistic regularity ensured that burst probability increased as a function of pumps. In the hybrid condition, a repeating sequence of three different probabilistic regularities increased burst probabilities. In every condition, the regularity was absent in the middle 30 balloons. Participants were not informed about the presence or absence of the regularity. Sensitivity to both the deterministic and hybrid regularities emerged and influenced risk taking. Unpredictable outcomes of the middle phase did not deteriorate this sensitivity. In conclusion, humans can adapt their risky choices in a changing decision environment by exploiting the statistical structure that controls how the environment changes.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummer1127
Seitenumfang16
FachzeitschriftScientific reports
Jahrgang13 (2023)
Ausgabenummer1
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 20 Jan. 2023
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Externe IDs

PubMed 36670165

Schlagworte