Costs and Potentials of Decarbonization in the Sector-coupled German Power System

Publikation: Hochschulschrift/AbschlussarbeitMasterarbeit

Abstract

This thesis investigates a cost-effective decarbonization pathway for the sector-coupled German power system by means of model-derived Marginal abatement cost curves (MACC). Nine technologies for the power sector, district heating and passenger vehicle transport are assessed in an energy system model, ELTRAMOD-MACC, regarding their costs and potentials of emissions
abatement, resulting in measure-explicit MACCs which indicate the cost-effective order of implementation. The results show that current policy targets for expansion of wind turbines and photovoltaic installations in Germany can ensure the desired share of 80% power generation from renewable energy sources (RES) at total electricity consumption by 2030 and in parallel
sharply decrease emissions from power generation beyond the sector’s obligation, but the longterm goal of 100% RES power generation seems unlikely to be attained with the current expansion scenarios for emission-free technologies in the power sector. Furthermore, by 2030 about 57 MtCO2 can be avoided at net negative cost solely from deployment of utility-scale photovoltaic,
wind onshore turbines and heat pumps. Deployment of heat pumps in district heating significantly avoid emissions, but full decarbonization can not be achieved without alternatives for fossil-fired gas boilers and combined heat-and-power plants. Past 2030, the further extension of battery electric vehicles in the transport sector contributes most to emission reductions, but still fall short the decarbonization target: without large-scale utilization of carbon capture
systems, the goal of net zero emissions in Germany by 2045 will not be achieved, mostly due to remaining internal combustion engine cars. The broad application of Vehicle-to-grid can significantly facilitate the early integration Battery electric vehicles and, to a smaller extent, residential solar PV, but it worsens cost-effectiveness of battery storage systems and does overall not lead
deeper emission reductions compared to a system with only unidirectional charging vehicles. Finally, the model analysis reveals that the targets for capacity of conventional power plants in the German Grid Development Plan are likely not sufficient to serve demand in case of high electrification of final energy use.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
QualifizierungsstufeMaster of Science
Gradverleihende Hochschule
Betreuer:in / Berater:in
Datum der Verteidigung (Datum der Urkunde)15 Aug. 2022
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 15 Aug. 2022
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