Cost estimates of the Kigali Amendment to phase-down hydrofluorocarbons

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • Lena Höglund-Isaksson - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Autor:in)
  • Pallav Purohit - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Autor:in)
  • Markus Amann - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Autor:in)
  • Imrich Bertok - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Autor:in)
  • Peter Rafaj - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Autor:in)
  • Wolfgang Schöpp - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Autor:in)
  • Jens Borken-Kleefeld - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Autor:in)

Abstract

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are synthetically produced compounds primarily used for cooling purposes and with strong global warming properties. In this paper, we analyze the global abatement costs for achieving the substantial reductions in HFC consumption agreed in the Kigali Amendment (KA) of the Montreal Protocol from October 2016. We estimate that compliance with the KA is expected to remove 39 Pg CO2eq or 61% of global baseline HFC emissions over the entire period 2018–2050. The marginal cost of meeting the KA targets is expected to remain below 60 €/t CO2eq throughout the period in all world regions except for developed regions where legislation to control HFC emissions has already been in place since a few years. For the latter regions, the required HFC consumption reduction is expected to come at a marginal cost increasing steadily to between 90 and 118 €/t CO2eq in 2050. Depending on the expected rate of technological development and the extent to which envisaged electricity savings can be realized, compliance with KA is estimated attainable at a global cost ranging from a net cost-saving of 240 billion € to a net cost of 350 billion € over the entire period 2018 to 2050 and with future global electricity-savings estimated at between 0.2% and 0.7% of expected future electricity consumption.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Seiten (von - bis)138-147
Seitenumfang10
FachzeitschriftEnvironmental Science and Policy
Jahrgang75
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Sept. 2017
Peer-Review-StatusJa
Extern publiziertJa

Externe IDs

ORCID /0000-0002-5465-8559/work/150883952

Schlagworte

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

Schlagwörter

  • Abatement cost, Energy efficiency co-benefits, Greenhouse gases, Hydrofluorocarbons, Kigali amendment, Montreal protocol