An investigation into the future changes in rainfall onset, cessation and length of rainy season in the Oti River Basin, West Africa

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • D. Kwawuvi - (Autor:in)
  • Daouda Mama - (Autor:in)
  • Sampson K. Agodzo - (Autor:in)
  • Andreas Hartmann - , Professur für Grundwassersysteme (Autor:in)
  • Isaac Larbi - (Autor:in)
  • Enoch Bessah - (Autor:in)
  • Tesfalem Abraham - (Autor:in)
  • Sam-Quarcoo Dotse - (Autor:in)
  • Andrew Manoba Limantol - (Autor:in)

Abstract

The study determined rainfall onset and cessation dates, and length of rainy season (LRS) in the Oti River Basin (ORB) using historical data (1981–2010) and future (2021–2050) model data. Historical data were from meteorological stations, Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (NASA POWER) while ensemble of eight models were acquired from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Africa). An evaluation of the models was performed based on correlation, standard deviation and root-mean-square error (RMSE). The onset, cessation and LRS were analyzed for trends using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. An evaluation of the performance of the models on rainfall revealed strong correlation (r > 0.9), with standard deviation < 2.0 and RMSE < 0.75 whereas for temperature a strong correlation (r ≥ 0.99), standard deviation < 1.25 and RMSE < 0.25 were also recorded. Results also showed that onset date could increase from 8 May (128 days) to about 24 May (144 days) in the future under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) emission scenarios. Cessation date which was on 29 October (302 days) in the historical period could decrease to 7 October (280 days) under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in future. The LRS would decrease from 173 days to about 136 days under both emission scenarios. These anticipated variations in onset and cessation dates, and LRS are amongst the important rainfall characteristics that could affect future agricultural viability and planning, and the availability of water in the ORB.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Seiten (von - bis)5077-5095
Seitenumfang19
FachzeitschriftModeling earth systems and environment
Jahrgang8
Ausgabenummer4
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Nov. 2022
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Externe IDs

Scopus 85128808584
WOS 000788038400003
Mendeley 6ab53dd7-eb74-3277-9569-822f62c2409f
unpaywall 10.1007/s40808-022-01410-w

Schlagworte

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

Schlagwörter

  • Agriculture, CLIMATE-CHANGE, Cessation, DROUGHT, GROWING-SEASON, IMPACT, Length of the rainy season, Onset, Oti River Basin, PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURE, TRENDS, VARIABILITY, VOLTA BASIN, West Africa, ZONES

Bibliotheksschlagworte