Aircraft total turnaround time estimation using fuzzy critical path method

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung

Abstract

Airport Collaborative Decision Making (ACDM) flight scheduling plans rely on accurate predictions of both optimal and reliable aircraft turnaround times, which is one of the most difficult things to complete. In order to account for the effects of randomness and fuzziness on the turnaround process duration, this paper deals with transforming the probability distribution of well-fitted sub-processes into a cumulative density function, which is equivalent to the fuzzy membership function (FMF), and then using goodness-of-fit to determine the fuzzy membership grade of each turnaround sub-process. The turnaround time is calculated using the fuzzy critical path method (FCPM), which is a combination of the Critical Path Method (CPM) and fuzzy set theory. In order to verify this estimate, we created the FMF using historical data and compared it to turnaround times based on FCPM. A linear regression model is used to examine the relationship between arrival delays and the FCPM-based turnaround process. We also use historical data to generate fuzzy sets of different arrival delays using Frankfurt airport data from the summer of 2017 and conclude that delays are positively correlated with the FCPM-based turnaround process.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Seiten (von - bis)241–254
Seitenumfang14
FachzeitschriftJournal of Project Management
Jahrgang7
Ausgabenummer4
Frühes Online-Datum16 Apr. 2022
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Okt. 2022
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Externe IDs

Scopus 85160203116

Schlagworte

Schlagwörter

  • Fuzzy Decision Making, Uncertainty, Decision Support System, FCPM, Fuzzy Critical Path Method, Airline Ground Operations