Administrative Failure, State Capacity, and Democratic Exclusion: Evidence from Berlin's 2021 Election Breakdown

Publikation: Vorabdruck/Dokumentation/BerichtArbeitspapier

Abstract

This paper studies the long-run effects of non-strategic administrative failures on voter participation. I exploit a natural experiment from Berlin's 2021 elections, in which hundreds of precincts experienced ballot shortages, multi-hour queues, and unlawful polling closures. Using precinct-level administrative data and a stacked event study design, I show that precincts exposed to administrative failures in the 2021 Berlin election experienced a 1.8 percentage points (2.4 decline in turnout across three subsequent elections over the next four years. The drop is concentrated in in-person voting and only partially offset by increases in postal participation in subsequent elections. Effects are largest among young voters, welfare recipients, and residents with migration backgrounds. Survey evidence suggests two mechanisms: disrupted civic habit formation and short-term erosion of institutional trust.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 1 Nov. 2025

Publikationsreihe

ReiheCEPIE working paper
Band 03/25
ISSN2510-1196
No renderer: customAssociatesEventsRenderPortal,dk.atira.pure.api.shared.model.researchoutput.WorkingPaper

Externe IDs

ORCID /0009-0002-5978-6450/work/197964344

Schlagworte

Schlagwörter

  • State Capacity, Voter Turnout, Voting Costs, Administrative Failure