A scenario-based evaluation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and the Hajj

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • Lauren M. Gardner - , University of New South Wales (Autor:in)
  • David Rey - , University of New South Wales (Autor:in)
  • Anita E. Heywood - , University of New South Wales (Autor:in)
  • Renin Toms - , University of New South Wales (Autor:in)
  • James Wood - , University of New South Wales (Autor:in)
  • S. Travis Waller - , University of New South Wales (Autor:in)
  • C. Raina MacIntyre - , University of New South Wales (Autor:in)

Abstract

Between April 2012 and June 2014, 820 laboratory-confirmed cases of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) have been reported in the Arabian Peninsula, Europe, North Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the United States. The observed epidemiology is different to SARS, which showed a classic epidemic curve and was over in eight months. The much longer persistence of MERS-CoV in the population, with a lower reproductive number, some evidence of human-to-human transmission but an otherwise sporadic pattern, is difficult to explain. Using available epidemiological data, we implemented mathematical models to explore the transmission dynamics of MERS-CoV in the context of mass gatherings such as the Hajj pilgrimage, and found a discrepancy between the observed and expected epidemiology. The fact that no epidemic occurred in returning Hajj pilgrims in either 2012 or 2013 contradicts the long persistence of the virus in human populations. The explanations for this discrepancy include an ongoing, repeated nonhuman/sporadic source, a large proportion of undetected or unreported human-to-human cases, or a combination of the two. Furthermore, MERS-CoV is occurring in a region that is a major global transport hub and hosts significant mass gatherings, making it imperative to understand the source and means of the yet unexplained and puzzling ongoing persistence of the virus in the human population.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Seiten (von - bis)1391-1400
Seitenumfang10
FachzeitschriftRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Jahrgang34
Ausgabenummer8
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 1 Aug. 2014
Peer-Review-StatusJa
Extern publiziertJa

Externe IDs

PubMed 25041625
ORCID /0000-0002-2939-2090/work/141543831

Schlagworte

Schlagwörter

  • Epidemiology, Hajj, mass gatherings, MERS-CoV, models