A learning model for traffic assignment: Incorporating Bayesian inference within the strategic user equilibrium model
Publikation: Beitrag zu Konferenzen › Paper › Beigetragen › Begutachtung
Beitragende
Abstract
This paper addresses adjusted travel route choice in the context of new transport developments and incremental traveller learning. It is assumed that new developments can impact traveller perceptions and adjustments in multiple ways. For instance, if travellers expect a project to significantly increase or decrease overall travel demand they may change their daily route choice based on those new expectations. Further, over time, travellers will learn actual network demand, and adapt their route choice accordingly. In particular, this paper employs a methodological framework to model the day-to-day learning process of road users, and the corresponding system performance over time with a focus on the impact of specific new developments. Travellers assume an initial demand distribution, and incrementally update it based on their day-to-day travel experiences. Bayesian Inference is used to update the travel demand distribution, and the strategic user equilibrium model is used to compute the underlying traffic assignment pattern. Numerical analysis is conducted on a test network to demonstrate the learning process in terms of the perceived travel demand, path choice, and perceived path travel times.
Details
Originalsprache | Englisch |
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Publikationsstatus | Veröffentlicht - 2015 |
Peer-Review-Status | Ja |
Extern publiziert | Ja |
Konferenz
Titel | 37th Australasian Transport Research Forum, ATRF 2015 |
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Dauer | 30 September - 2 Oktober 2015 |
Stadt | Sydney |
Land | Australien |
Externe IDs
ORCID | /0000-0002-2939-2090/work/141543838 |
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Schlagworte
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete
Schlagwörter
- Bayesian inference, Demand uncertainty, Learning, Network modelling, Strategic user equilibrium