On the brink of extinction? How climate change may affect global chelonian species richness and distribution

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Flora Ihlow - , Research Museum Alexander Koenig - Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity (Author)
  • Johannes Dambach - , Research Museum Alexander Koenig - Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity (Author)
  • Jan O. Engler - , Research Museum Alexander Koenig - Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity, Trier University (Author)
  • Morris Flecks - , Research Museum Alexander Koenig - Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity (Author)
  • Timo Hartmann - , Research Museum Alexander Koenig - Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity (Author)
  • Sven Nekum - , Research Museum Alexander Koenig - Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity (Author)
  • Hossein Rajaei - , Research Museum Alexander Koenig - Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity (Author)
  • Dennis Rödder - , Research Museum Alexander Koenig - Leibniz Institute for Animal Biodiversity (Author)

Abstract

Anthropogenic global climate change has already led to alterations in biodiversity patterns by directly and indirectly affecting species distributions. It has been suggested that poikilothermic animals, including reptiles, will be particularly affected by global change and large-scale reptile declines have already been observed. Currently, half of the world's freshwater turtles and tortoises are considered threatened with extinction, and climate change may exacerbate these declines. In this study, we assess how global chelonian species richness will change in the near future. We use species distribution models developed under current climate conditions for 78% of all extant species and project them onto different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios for 2080. We detect a strong dependence of temperature shaping most species ranges, which coincide with their general temperature-related physiological traits (i.e., temperature-dependent sex determination). Furthermore, the extent and distribution of the current bioclimatic niches of most chelonians may change remarkably in the near future, likely leading to a substantial decrease of local species abundance and ultimately a reduction in species richness. Future climatic changes may cause the ranges of 86% of the species to contract, and of these ranges, nearly 12% are predicted to be situated completely outside their currently realized niches. Hence, the interplay of increasing habitat fragmentation and loss due to climatic stress may result in a serious threat for several chelonian species.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1520-1530
Number of pages11
JournalGlobal change biology
Volume18
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - May 2012
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

Keywords

  • Biodiversity, Chelonia, Extrapolation, Species distribution modeling, Species range, Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD)