National and international renewable electricity expansion and conventional capacity phase-out plans increase the challenge of ensuring generation adequacy in the European power market. New gas-fired power plants have been perceived as a promising option for securing supply. However, current geopolitical developments question the electricity sector's high dependency on natural gas as an energy source. This paper examines how different scenarios of power consumption and renewable targets in Germany determine the reliance on gas-fired capacity in 2030, 2040 and 2050. To this end, it analyzes the interdependence between gas power, renewable capacities, electricity trading and greenhouse gas emissions in and outside Germany in several scenarios, employing the power market model ELTRAMOD. The findings indicate a clear need for future reliable capacity with gas capacity expansion accounting for the largest share. Depending on the particular scenario, the reliance on natural gas will persist or increase until 2040, as high amounts of electricity from natural gas remain in the system. More ambitious German renewable expansion targets shift natural gas usage from Germany to other European countries. Phasing out coal in Germany before 2030 instead of 2038 increases the dependency of Germany on reliable capacity from abroad and intensifies the German and European reliance on natural gas.
|Published - 11 Aug 2023
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